Will Petrol Prices Increase or Decrease This Year (2024)?

Feb 1, 2024

Having seen some of the highest fuel prices in decades in 2023, you might be wondering whether petrol prices are likely to rise or fall this year. There are a number of factors which might impact the trend we see this year - read on for some of the key ones.

Market Dynamics

Ultimately a lot of it comes down to a complex blend of market dynamics - demand for fuel, economic conditions and disruptions in the supply chain. If there is an increased demand for fuel or if there are further interruptions in the supply chain, prices will experience an upward trend.

Geopolitical Changes

Politics can also play a role in influencing fuel prices. If tensions escalate in regions where oil is produced or if international relations deteriorate, it could lead to a hike in petrol prices. In the last couple of years, the Russia-Ukraine war has exemplified this, having an unprecedented impact on the cost of fuel across multiple sectors - according to experts, it’s responsible for up to 70% of the increase in crude oil prices. Of course, this is hard to predict but we might say we can expect prices to remain high for some time.

Seasonal Bumps

Seasons not only bring about changes in the weather but they also affect fuel prices. When more people are out and about using their cars, the demand for fuel increases - this can cause sharp hikes in petrol prices in peak periods, like the school holidays. So it might be worth budgeting a bit more for that summer road trip!

Electric Vehicles

The electric vehicle market is booming - more and more people are opting for sustainable options and this is disrupting the traditional car market. It might be hoped that these advancements towards sustainability will ultimately push petrol prices down as brands are forced to offer more competitive prices.

Government Regulations

Over the course of 2023, the government started taking more steps to make fuel pricing more transparent. The watchdog has stepped in to help increase competition between suppliers and protect consumers from unfair price hikes. A large part of this is likely to be covered by petrol stations having to publish any changes to their prices more quickly and publicly, which means sites like Petrol Map will be able to provide more accurate, up-to-date information to users. With prices more visible and easier to compare in real-time, we should see more motivation for suppliers to price competitively.

The Bottom Line

Ultimately, predicting petrol prices is like trying to forecast the weather – it's a bit challenging. While we will remain susceptible to major global events, it is promising that the government has begun to step in to control prices. Whatever happens, it’ll still be important to keep track of the best daily prices near you. Fortunately, Petrol Map is here to help with that.

For more money saving tips, check out our 10 practical ways to start saving on fuel and our rundown of the best fuel loyalty schemes in the UK.